An early surge of flu cases in the U.S. is likely to aid revenue of Indian companies selling antiviral drugs in the American market.

The prescription data from IQVIA has suggested a significant increase in demand for antivirals like generic Tamiflu or gTamiflu, respiratory drugs, certain cephalosporins, and other antibacterial drugs as the initial surge in flu cases has been the highest in seven to eight years, according to Nomura's Dec. 21 report. The cases were lower in the past two years due to the pandemic restricted movement.

"The U.S. antivirals product market, where most Indian companies participate, could see a potential quarter-on-quarter rise of $200–250 million, or around Rs 1,600–2,100 crore, in sales in Q3FY23, in our view."

Lupin Ltd. is likely to benefit the most from a potentially higher demand.

Here's what Nomura said:

• The total number of prescriptions for cough, cold, and anti-flu drugs is up 96% year-on-year.
• The prescription of oseltamivir was up 460% and 720% year-on-year for capsules and suspension, respectively, for the week ending Dec. 9, 2022.
• This is likely to be the highest in the recent past.
• Though it is difficult to forecast demand in the subsequent months, channel inventory stocking is likely.
• There are reports of shortages of Tamiflu and other antibiotics.
• The shortage is particularly acute for suspension products that are used for treating children.
• There has been some increase in total prescriptions for respiratory products like albuterol MDI and solution, as well as cephalosporins.
• Overall impact could result in higher sales, up by $200–250 million quarter-on-quarter in Q3FY23, with Tamiflu contributing the most to this incremental demand.
• The relatively high-value drugs are Tamiflu, albuterol, azithromycin, and amoxicillin.
• Lupin is expected to be the largest beneficiary with its presence in Tamiflu, azithromycin, and albuterol.
• The increased demand for flu products can result in a $20 million, around Rs 165 crore, rise in Lupin’s US sales for Q3FY23.
• The other key Indian players selling key flu drugs with a sizable market share include Strides Pharma Science Ltd., Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd., Ajanta Pharma Ltd., Zydus Lifesciences Ltd., Aurobindo Pharma Ltd., Cipla Ltd., and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.

Demand for Indian drugs surges as China battles deadly Covid wave: Report

China’s demand for Indian anti Covid generic drugs including Paxlovid– Pfizer’s oral drug is increasing amid a surge in Covid cases. This is despite the fact that Beijing does not approve of the sale of Indian generic drugs. More than 50,000 boxes of Indian generic drugs have been sold in less than a month since Beijing abruptly withdrew its zero Covid policy, an Observer Research Foundation report highlighted.

Even as Chinese doctors have warned citizens not to take Indian drugs, the local media there have said that since April this year, the Indian generic version has become hugely popular among customers in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, the report said.

The ORF also noted that Chinese reports have highlighted that “anti-COVID Indian generic drugs sold at RMB 1000 box” and these appeared on Weibo’s hot search list in the last few days.

Paxlovid, which helps in reducing the severe disease rate and death rate by 82.5 per cent, particularly in the elderly population, is in short supply in the Chinese market, the ORF report said. “At present, Pfizer’s Paxlovid is only sold in certain hospitals in China, and the supply is highly insufficient,” the ORF said.

China has not provided any data to the World Health Organisation on the new hospitalisation cases since the resurgence of the virus.

The BF 7 variant which has led to a surge in infection cases in China has been prevalent in several countries including India for many months. Experts said that the surge in cases in China may have been due to the vaccine coverage—many elders in the country have also not bee

References:

bqprime.com
 indianarrative.com