Jan Ki Baat has released the results of its latest survey ahead of the crucial Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, scheduled in the month of February to March 2022, predicting the return of Yogi Adityanath as the CM of the state.

In its survey, which sampled 20,000 people from all over the state, across all 75 districts, the polling agency predicted a comfortable return of the Yogi Adityanath led Bharatiya Janata Party government in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The survey predicts BJP to win between 233 and 252 seats in the upcoming Assembly polls while the Samajwadi Party could get between 135 and 149 seats. The results predicted for the Congress party does not appear very promising as it is expected to get anything between 3 to 6 seats. Meanwhile, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party could bag 11-12 seats while others could get between 1-4 seats.

Jan ki Baat opinion poll

If we analyse the percentage of the vote share of BJP and other parties, based on the aforementioned predicted number of seats, Jan Ki Baat predicted a vote share of 39 per cent for the Yogi Adityanath led BJP in Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls. The Samajwadi Party is expected to receive 35 per cent, which is the highest ever the party has received. The Bahujan Samaj Party is expected to receive 14 per cent, Congress 5 per cent, and other parties 7 per cent.

Graph prepared based on Jan Ki Baat opinion poll

Broadly breaking down the vote share district wise, the survey predicted that BJP will bag 53-59 of the total 104 seats in the Purvanchal sub-region of Uttar Pradesh, while the Congress would not win even one.

In Western Uttar Pradesh- encompassing the Braj region, the BJP, according to the survey, would safely secure 84-88 seats of the total 142 seats, which is over 61 per cent of the total vote share. Here, Congress is predicted to win 2 seats. Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party might bag anything between 51 to 55 seats while BSP might get 1-3 seats.

In Bundelkhand, the BJP is expected to secure 19-21 of the total 25 seats as per the survey figures. SP is a distant second with 6-3 seats and BSP is slated to take third place with just 0-1 seats. Under the helm of Gandhi-scion Priyanka Gandhi, the Congress party fails to make an impact in the region.

In the Awadh region, BJP is expected to secure 7-84 of the 132 seats. Congress on the other hand is anticipated to bag merely 4-3 seats in its kitty.

Further, BJP is projected to lead in Hatras and Lakhimpur Kheri. It may be recalled how Congress had attempted to milk the tragic events that transpired in both Hathras and Lakhimpur Kheri to earn political brownie points but people were quick to see through their ruse.

According to the poll, the BJP is expected to do better than Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party in garnering female voters.

55% respondents of Jan Ki Baat survey want Yogi Adityanath back as the CM of Uttar Pradesh

When the respondents were asked about the most preferred CM, UP’s incumbent CM Yogi Adityanath emerged to be the favourite. 55 per cent of the respondents said they want to see Yogi Adityanath returning as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh while a negligible less than 2 per cent put their weight behind the Congress scion Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. 31 per cent of the respondents opined that SP’s chief Akhilesh Yadav could become the next CM, while BSP’s Mayawati received 10 per cent of the vote.

Graph prepared based on the survey conducted by Jan Ki Baat

Interestingly, another independent survey conducted by a private company named Matrise News Communication in the month of April this year had also declared Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath as the favourite, while, placing the general secretary of the All India Congress Committee in charge of Uttar Pradesh Priyanka Gandhi at the bottom of the ladder. As per the survey, 43% of respondents have chosen Yogi Adityanath as the most sought after CM candidate for the state, while only 14% batted for Priyanka Gandhi. 

On being asked to assess how far Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s welfare schemes would facilitate the return of BJP in the state, 75 per cent of respondents were of the view that the PM’s welfare programmes are a major factor that will help the BJP win elections.

On Being questioned on the top election issue in Uttar Pradesh, 23 per cent of respondents said that they will cast their vote on the issue of development. 24 per cent said they’re going to vote on the basis of caste and religion and 21 per cent said they will vote on the basis of law and order. 10 per cent said they will vote on the issue of inflation. Meanwhile, for 1 per cent Ram Mandir is a factor on the basis of which they’ll cast their votes.

Jan Ki Baat opinion poll had predicted the return of BJP at the centre with a thumping majority

It is pertinent to note here that Jan Ki Baat had conducted a similar survey before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in which it had predicted a victory for the NDA with 304-316 seats and the BJP to emerge as the single largest party with 248-260 seats. As predicted, the Bharatiya Janata Party had received 37.36% of the vote, the highest vote share by a political party since the 1989 general election, and won 303 seats, further increasing its substantial majority. In addition, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 353 seats.

The survey had also predicted that Congress would increase its tally at least from the 44 it secured in 2014. The Indian National Congress had won 52 seats, failing to get 10% of the seats needed to claim the post of Leader of Opposition.

Meanwhile, Yogi Adityanath was made the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh in 2017 after BJP came to power in the state with a thumping majority. The BJP had won 319 seats in the 2017 Assembly elections while SP and BSP, the two main contenders, could bag only 47 and 19 seats respectively. The Congress party, meanwhile, had notched up barely 7 seats in the last Assembly elections.

References:

opindia.com - OpIndia Staff